What Are Private Markets?
The Early Investor's Dream:
Imagine investing in Amazon in 1997 at $18/share. By 2024, those shares would be worth over $3,000 (split-adjusted), a 16,000%+ return.
Now imagine investing in Amazon before it went public in 1997. That's what venture capital investors got to do.
But for every Amazon, there are thousands of failures that investors lost everything on. The winners are celebrated; the losers are forgotten.
Private markets = investing in companies not publicly traded:
- Venture Capital (VC): Early-stage, high-risk startups
- Private Equity (PE): Established companies bought out of public markets or never public
- Growth Equity: Companies between VC and PE stage
Why they exist:
- Companies may not want/need public markets
- Flexibility without public company reporting
- Long-term strategic changes without quarterly pressure
- Different capital needs at different stages
Venture Capital Explained
How VC Works
The process:
- VC fund raises money from investors (LPs)
- Fund invests in many startups (20-50+)
- Most startups fail (return $0)
- A few succeed big (return 10-100x+)
- Winners compensate for losers
The math of VC:
| Outcome | % of Investments | Return Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Total loss | 40-50% | 0x |
| Partial loss | 20-30% | 0.1-0.9x |
| Modest return | 10-20% | 1-3x |
| Strong return | 5-10% | 3-10x |
| Home run | 1-5% | 10-100x+ |
A single investment returning 50x can make an entire fund successful.
VC Fund Structure
Limited Partnership:
- General Partners (GPs): VC firm, makes decisions
- Limited Partners (LPs): Investors providing capital
Fund terms:
- 10-12 year fund life
- First 3-5 years: Investing period
- Remaining years: Harvesting/exits
- Capital called over time (not all at once)
Fees:
- Management fee: 2% of committed capital annually
- Carried interest: 20% of profits above hurdle rate
- "2 and 20" structure
VC Returns
Top-tier funds:
- 25-30%+ net IRR historically
- 3-4x+ return multiples
- But access is extremely limited
Median funds:
- 10-15% net IRR
- 1.5-2x return multiples
- Often underperforms public markets after fees
Bottom quartile:
- May lose money
- Often fail to return capital
The dispersion is enormous: Fund selection matters more than in public markets.
Private Equity Explained
How PE Works
The process:
- PE fund raises capital from LPs
- Fund acquires established companies
- Implements operational improvements
- Uses leverage (debt) to enhance returns
- Sells companies 3-7 years later
Value creation strategies:
- Operational improvements
- Cost cutting
- Revenue growth
- Multiple expansion (buy low, sell high)
- Debt paydown (leverage benefits)
- Add-on acquisitions
PE Fund Structure
Similar to VC:
- 10-12 year fund life
- 2% management fee
- 20% carried interest
- Capital called as investments made
Key difference from VC:
- More debt (leverage)
- Larger, established companies
- Lower failure rate
- More predictable returns
PE Returns
Top-tier funds:
- 20-25% net IRR
- 2-3x return multiples
Median funds:
- 12-16% net IRR
- 1.5-2x return multiples
- May or may not beat public markets after fees
Important caveat: PE return data is self-reported, hard to verify, and subject to various biases. Actual performance may be lower than reported.
Access: The Core Problem
Who Can Invest?
Traditional PE/VC funds:
- Minimum investment: $1-10 million
- Accredited investor status required
- Often require institutional relationships
- Best funds oversubscribed, closed to new investors
What "accredited investor" means:
- $200k income ($300k joint) for 2+ years, OR
- $1 million (excluding primary residence)
The Quality Access Gap
The best funds don't need your money:
- Established relationships with LPs
- Oversubscribed quickly
- May not accept new investors
- Returns concentrated in top quartile
What's accessible to individuals:
- Lower-tier funds
- Funds of funds (extra layer of fees)
- Newer managers (unproven)
- Crowdfunding platforms
The funds you CAN access may not be the funds worth accessing.
Ways to Access Private Markets
Funds of Funds
What they are:
- Fund that invests in multiple PE/VC funds
- across managers
- Lower minimums (sometimes $100k+)
Drawbacks:
- Extra layer of fees (1% + 10% typical)
- Still need accreditation
- Diluted returns
- Long lockups
Registered Funds
What they are:
- SEC-registered funds investing in private markets
- Available to retail investors
- Lower minimums ($10-25k)
- Some (quarterly windows)
Examples:
- Hamilton Lane Interval Fund
- Blackstone's BREIT (real estate)
- Various interval funds
Drawbacks:
- Higher fees than traditional PE
- Limited liquidity (quarterly, with restrictions)
- May gate redemptions in stress
- Performance may lag top funds
Crowdfunding Platforms
What they are:
- Direct investment in startups
- Low minimums ($100-1,000+)
- Available to non-accredited (with limits)
Platforms:
- Republic
- Wefunder
- StartEngine
- SeedInvest
Drawbacks:
- Companies here couldn't raise from top VCs
- Very high failure rate
- Extreme illiquidity (years to any exit)
- Adverse selection concerns
Secondary Market
What it is:
- Buying existing stakes in PE/VC funds
- Sometimes access to discounted positions
- Still requires accreditation typically
Platforms:
- EquityZen (pre-IPO shares)
- Forge (pre-IPO shares)
- Various secondary funds
Should You Invest in Private Markets?
Arguments FOR
Potential benefits:
- Access to companies before they're public
- Diversification from public markets
- Top funds have generated strong returns
- Illiquidity (compensation for lockup)
- Potential for outsized returns
Arguments AGAINST
Significant challenges:
- High fees (2%+ management, 20% carry)
- Extreme illiquidity (10+ years)
- Access to best funds difficult
- Performance dispersion huge
- Complex and opaque
- May not beat public markets after fees
Who Should Consider Private Markets
Do This
Private markets MAY be appropriate if you:
- Have $1M+ investable assets
- Have maxed all tax-advantaged accounts
- Have 6+ months emergency fund in liquid assets
- Can truly lock up funds for 10+ years
- Have access to quality funds (not just what's available)
- Understand you may lose the investment
- Have professional guidance
- Allocating <20% of portfolio
Who Should Avoid Private Markets
Private markets are NOT appropriate if you:
- Have less than $500k investable
- May need the money within 10 years
- Only have access to retail-available options
- Don't understand the structures and risks
- Would be relying on these for retirement
The Honest Assessment
PE/VC Returns Are Overstated
Problems with reported returns:
- Self-reported, not audited
- Survivorship bias (failed funds disappear)
- Unrealized investments marked by managers
- IRR can be manipulated
- Fees often understated
Academic research suggests:
- Median PE may not outperform S&P 500 after fees
- VC returns concentrated in small number of funds
- Dispersion means manager selection crucial
- "Average" private markets investor likely underperforms
The Opportunity Cost
Consider the alternative:
| Investment | Minimum | Fees | Liquidity | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | $1 | 0.03% | Immediate | ~10% |
| PE (accessible) | $50k+ | 3-4% total | 10+ years | ??? |
Is the complexity worth the uncertain premium?
If You Proceed
Due Diligence Checklist
For any private investment:
- Track record (audited, meaningful length)
- Team experience and stability
- Investment strategy clearly defined
- Fee structure (all fees, including hidden)
- Alignment with your goals
- Exit strategy
- References from current LPs
- Legal review of documents
Sizing Your Allocation
If you invest:
- Start small (5-10% of portfolio maximum)
- Diversify across multiple funds/vintages
- Maintain significant liquid reserves
- Plan for illiquidity to last longer than stated
Realistic Expectations
Expect:
- Long periods of no liquidity or updates
- Capital calls at inconvenient times
- Wide range of outcomes
- Likely lower returns than hoped
- Complexity in tax reporting
The Alternative: Public Market Proxies
Get private market exposure through public markets:
- Publicly traded PE firms (BX, KKR, APO)
- Venture-backed public companies
- Small-cap value funds
- REITs for real estate exposure
Benefits:
- Liquid
- Low fees
- Diversified
- Transparent
Not exactly the same, but captures some return drivers.
The Bottom Line
Private equity and venture capital offer potential access to high-return investments unavailable in public markets—but the reality is more complicated. High fees, extreme illiquidity, the difficulty of accessing top-performing funds, and the risk of underperformance mean private markets are appropriate for only a small subset of investors. If you have significant wealth ($1M+), access to quality funds, and can truly lock up capital for a decade, a small allocation may make sense. For everyone else, simple, low-cost public market will likely produce better risk-adjusted returns with far less complexity and cost. The dream of early investment in the next Amazon is real—but so is the reality of the thousands of failures that never made it.
